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by Elliott wave international team
In the 1930s,
Ralph Nelson Elliott, a corporate accountant
by profession, studied price movements in the
financial markets and observed that certain
patterns repeat themselves. He offered proof of
his discovery by making astonishingly accurate
stock market forecasts. What appears random and
unrelated, Elliott said, will actually trace out
a recognizable pattern once you learn what to
look for. Elliott called his discovery "The
Elliott Wave Principle," and its implications
were huge. He had identified the common link
that drives the trends in human affairs, from
financial markets to fashion, from politics to
popular culture.
Robert Prechter, Jr., president of
Elliott Wave International, resurrected the
Wave Principle from near obscurity in 1976 when
he discovered the complete body of R.N.
Elliott's work in the New York Library. Robert
Prechter, Jr. and A.J. Frost published
Elliott Wave Principle in 1978.
The book received enthusiastic reviews and
became a Wall Street bestseller. In Elliott
Wave Principle, Prechter and Frost's
forecast called for a roaring bull market in the
1980s, to be followed by a record bear market.
Needless to say, knowledge of the Wave Principle
among private and professional investors grew
dramatically in the 1980s.
When investors and traders first discover the
Elliott Wave Principle, there are several
reactions:
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Disbelief – that markets are patterned
and largely predictable by technical
analysis alone
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Joyous “irrational exuberance” – at
having found a “crystal ball” to
foretell the future
-
And finally the correct,
and useful response – “Wow,
here is a valuable new tool I should
learn to use.”
Just like any system or structure found in
nature, the closer you look at wave patterns,
the more structured complexity you see. It is
structured, because nature’s patterns build
on themselves, creating similar forms at
progressively larger sizes. You can see these
fractal patterns in botany, geography,
physiology, and the things humans create, like
roads, residential subdivisions… and – as recent
discoveries have confirmed – in market prices.
Natural systems, including Elliott wave patterns
in market charts, “grow” through time, and their
forms are defined by interruptions to that
growth.
Here's what is meant by that. When your hands
formed in the womb, they first looked like round
paddles growing equally in all directions. Then,
in the places between your fingers, cells ceased
growing or died, and growth was directed to the
five digits. This structured progress and
regress is essential to all forms of growth.
That this “punctuated growth” appears in market
data is only natural – as Robert Prechter, Jr.,
the world's foremost Elliott wave expert and
president of Elliott Wave International, says,
“Everything that thrives must have setbacks.”
The
first step in Elliott wave analysis is
identifying patterns in market prices. At their
core, wave patterns are simple; there are only
two of them: “impulse waves,” and “corrective
waves.”
Impulse waves are composed of five
sub-waves and move in the same direction as
the trend of the next larger size (labeled as 1,
2, 3, 4, 5). Impulse waves are called so because
they powerfully impel the market.
A corrective wave follows, composed of
three sub-waves, and it moves against the
trend of the next larger size (labeled as a, b,
c). Corrective waves accomplish only a partial
retracement, or "correction," of the progress
achieved by any preceding impulse wave.
As the figure to the right shows, one complete
Elliott wave consists of eight waves and two
phases: five-wave impulse phase, whose sub-waves
are denoted by numbers, and the three-wave
corrective phase, whose sub-waves are denoted by
letters.
What R.N. Elliott set out to describe using the
Elliott Wave Principle was how the market
actually behaves. There are a number of specific
variations on the underlying theme, which
Elliott meticulously described and illustrated.
He also noted the important fact that each
pattern has identifiable requirements
as well as tendencies. From these
observations, he was able to formulate numerous
rules and guidelines for proper wave
identification. A thorough knowledge of such
details is necessary to understand what the
markets can do, and at least as important, what
it does not do.
You
have only just begun to learn the power and
complexity of the Elliott Wave Principle. So,
don't let your Elliott wave education end here.
Join Elliott Wave International's free Club EWI
and access the Basic
Tutorial: 10 lessons on The Elliott Wave
Principle and learn how to use this valuable
tool in your own trading and investing.
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