Roberto Jbili - FX OIL Trading Signals 19-4-2009

An important event was noted recently which must be considered an important key to markets investments and Global FX Trading Picks.

-The event is the USA Admin to Give Iran Talk chance over the Iranian latest development in Its nuclear activity news and
Which was confirmed by USA president Global tour and talks with Alliance.

The key to this event is the Geo-Political Stability provided to build investor confidence needed in some markets and which was translated later into Gold large sell-off as explained in my analysis in EUR/USD.

OIL TRADING

           

A disconnection of Commodities family valuation was noted in both of Gold & Oil prices & trading.

The reason was Geo-political pricing into Gold price, an Geo-political Risk from anticipated military action over Iran
development of its nuclear activity, this reason saved the gold from following the oil in the drop:

*Oil was at 150 $ and then dropped to 35$, if we exclude geo-political risk, gold real price is around 400$ when oil
was at 35$, note that Gold is Going Down.

**Geo-Political stability is a signal to sell gold and to move to oil to double the price of oil from 35 to 70$.

-I call oil As an buying signal from actual level of 50 $ with target of 70$ levels.

-Oil will be bought in USD, Oil will be held in USD open positions, in other words countries with large profile of oil consumption like EUR & JPY will sell theri currencies to Buy USD and then with USD to buy OIL.

OIL consumption currencies will drop, oil produces currencies will rise.

Investors, Traders, Governments, Will have opened positions & Consumption orders of OIL in USD which will remain UP.

-It is very hard to estimate the Number of hundred millions of barrels which will be bought in USD to bring the OIL to 70$ levels, but this will bring Euro Down VS Dollar, It will bring Gold down to buy with its money OIL, it is like moving money from
(Info Tech & Semis) to Oil Sector.

*Note that oil is traded in USD.

*I expect that (Texas Instruments & Motorola) & (Cisco & Yahoo) & (Dell & Hp) to indicate a next quarter with less consumer confidence in spending in technology products especially in Cell phones since oil direction will affect the consumer spending.

-HP & DELL remain better to invest doing to PC upgrade, Cell phones has less product profile to attract consumer with less innovation in Cell phones products.

-Oil Rise will affect tech stocks and stock markets in short term on the downside.

-I call Yahoo to Be trading in Short with target below 10$ with Put Optiones.

-I advise selling currencies of countries with large oil consumption & to Buy currencies of large producers and USD.

-Oil Futures of May delivery indicate a signal from Republican Eagles especially via Mr. Deck Cheney that Iran is Under
control and is under special strategy focus. Halliburton earnings results will be a leading indicator to oil sector and buy signal
for oil.

-Bear Market rally in commodity market will make a bear market rally in stock markets later after a sharp drop and reflection of oil rise.

A drop after the bear market rally will confirm that we are moving from Commodity cycle to Oil Cycle after a large correction in Tech Sector.

-A Rise in oil price will be translated in a downside in markets over short term which will promote carry trade activity and sentiment, relation between carry trade and oil will be noted in NZD/USD.

Currencies to trade:

GBP/USD

           

Very attractive buying opportunity confirmed by Brent chart which indicate in line GBP direction.

A lot of large speculators will observe GBP value and will translate this point into GBP trading to the top of 1.60 levels.

EUR/GBP

          

Who buy oil? the countries which use consume it more than it produce, they will sell their currencies in favor of USD to buy oil, EC countries is among them this will bring EUR/USD Down as explained in my analysis.

A trend of oil rise will bring GBP on the rise since it is an OIL currency. I see EUR/GBP around 0.81.

USD/NOK
　

         
Limited downside to 6.30 level.

USD/CAD

         

On the Downside and I like to buy CAD as an OIL Currency VS USD as an TECH currency, target is around 1.11.

USD/NZD

          

Downside to 0.52 level combained with sharp market drop and carry trade sentiment.

Written By Roberto Jbili on 19-4-2009
0039 3272386209
www.forexinvestor.net 


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